Are POTS lines becoming extinct?

Posted on 15. Sep, 2011 by Excel Riedel [archives]

FCC May Kill PSTN

Recently the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) was asked to announce an end date for the public switched telephone network (PSTN).  Many are familiar with another common name for the PSTN, POTS lines, which stands for plain old telephone service.  This recommendation came from the Technical Advisory Committee (TAC) made up of telecom experts which was formed to advise the FCC on such matters.  According to the TAC, the shrinking number of subscribers for new POTS lines coupled with the increasing costs of an aging infrastructure will eventually become untenable.  It appears the newer technologies of cellular service, cable, and Voice over IP (VoIP) have effectively eroded the traditional telephone infrastructure.  In fact, this shift has not already come about only because of a need for coverage in rural areas, which are underserved by newer technologies.  The TAC gave a few data points to illustrate its case:

• Fixed lines continue to decline.  More that 25% of U.S. consumers aged 18 or older have already given up their voice landline for mobile service.
• By 2014 U.S. consumers will have 31.6 million VoIP lines accounting for 42.5% of all U.S. access lines.

The FCC will certainly have its work cut out for it should it choose to abide by this recommendation.  The TAC advised the FCC to:

• Take steps to expedite the removal of the public switched network. A fast transition would “generate significant economic activity while at the same time lower the total cost.”
• Develop a timeline for a smooth transition
• Ensure mobile or VoIP access is available in all areas, including currently underserved rural markets
• Change telecom taxes to ensure the continuation of Universal Service Fund (USF) programs continue to be funded (if POTS lines are removed, and USF programs still require funds, a need arises to reallocate taxes and raise the appropriate revenue)
• Investigate an incentive program to convert consumers using POTS line to begin using mobile or VoIP lines possibly by creating financial incentives towards the purchase of new equipment

Just like the replacement of the horse and buggy by the car, and just like the replacement of typerwriters by computers, it appears the public switched telephone network will soon be relegated to the museum by means of cellular service and Voice over IP.  We plan to monitor what action, if any the FCC takes towards the recommendations of the TAC and will send out notification should any new changes take place.

Source:  Technology Advisory Council:  Status of Recommendations, June 29, 2011.  http://www.fcc.gov/events/technical-advisory-council-meeting. Related Materials. PowerPoint

Posted on 15. Sep, 2011 by Excel Riedel[archives]